Real Madrid – Inter odds
Real Madrid went into the match as heavy favourites against Inter.
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Real Madrid – Inter: closing odds analysis
- Real Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 57% chance of a home win, 21% for Inter and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Real Madrid 2.90 at bwin, the draw 4.70 at Stake, Inter 5.33 at CampoBet.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Real Madrid drifted from 1.98 at the opening to 2.90 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Real Madrid or Inter?
Real Madrid, by a distance: the closing odds put 35.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Real Madrid – Inter?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Real Madrid, Stake on the draw and CampoBet on Inter. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.7%) and bwin the least (89.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | REAL MADRID | DRAW | INTER | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.61 | 4.70 best price | 5.00 | 96.7% |
| VBET | 1.58 | 4.40 | 5.20 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.33 best price | 94.8% |
| Casinomoto | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.33 best price | 94.8% |
| Betoro | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.33 best price | 94.8% |
| Casino House | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.33 best price | 94.8% |
| SpreadEx | 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 94.7% |
| TipWin | 1.58 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 2.90 best price | 3.60 | 2.00 | 89.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.90 | 4.70 | 5.33 | 134.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.55–2.90 · 87.1% | 3.60–4.70 · 30.6% | 2.00–5.33 · 166.5% | 89.1–96.7% |
How did the Real Madrid – Inter odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Real Madrid drifted from 1.98 when odds opened on 29 Aug to 2.90 at kick-off, a 46.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | REAL MADRID | DRAW | INTER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 29 Aug (open) | 1.98 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Thu 3 Sep | 1.75 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Tue 8 Sep (kick-off) | 2.90 | 4.70 | 5.33 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 62.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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