Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal odds
Borussia Dortmund went into the match as heavy favourites against Villarreal.
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Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal: closing odds analysis
- Borussia Dortmund were favourites: the closing odds implied a 51% chance of a home win, 25% for Villarreal and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.95 at bwin, the draw 4.10 at Stake, Villarreal 4.50 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Borussia Dortmund drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 2.95 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Borussia Dortmund or Villarreal?
Borussia Dortmund, by a distance: the closing odds put 26.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Borussia Dortmund, Stake on the draw and Stake on Villarreal. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.4%) and bwin the least (89.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | BORUSSIA DORTMUND | DRAW | VILLARREAL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.75 | 4.10 best price | 4.50 best price | 96.4% |
| CampoBet | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 95.0% |
| Expekt | 1.80 | 4.10 best price | 3.95 | 95.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.77 | 4.10 best price | 4.10 | 95.0% |
| VBET | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.50 best price | 94.9% |
| ComeOn | 1.78 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 1.77 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 93.1% |
| Casinostuen | 1.77 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 93.1% |
| bwin | 2.95 best price | 3.60 | 1.98 | 89.1% |
| Marathonbet | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 2.95 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 124.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.72–2.95 · 71.5% | 3.60–4.10 · 13.9% | 1.98–4.50 · 127.3% | 89.1–96.4% |
How did the Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Borussia Dortmund drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 29 Aug to 2.95 at kick-off, a 43.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BORUSSIA DORTMUND | DRAW | VILLARREAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 29 Aug (open) | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.85 |
| Thu 3 Sep | 1.93 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Tue 8 Sep (kick-off) | 2.95 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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