Cagliari β Lecce odds
Cagliari went into the match as clear favourites against Lecce.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Cagliari β Lecce: closing odds analysis
- Cagliari were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of a home win, 26% for Lecce and 31% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Cagliari 2.29 at Stake, the draw 3.10 at Stake, Lecce 3.70 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lecce drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 3.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Cagliari or Lecce?
Cagliari, clearly: the closing odds put 16.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Cagliari β Lecce?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.1%) and bwin the least (94.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | CAGLIARI | DRAW | LECCE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.29 best price | 3.10 best price | 3.70 best price | 97.1% |
| VBET | 2.24 | 3.00 | 3.70 best price | 95.2% |
| bwin | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 94.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.29 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 97.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.24β2.29 Β· 2.2% | 3.00β3.10 Β· 3.3% | 3.50β3.70 Β· 5.7% | 94.0β97.1% |
How did the Cagliari β Lecce odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lecce drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 27 Aug to 3.70 at kick-off, a 2.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CAGLIARI | DRAW | LECCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 27 Aug (open) | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Wed 2 Sep | 2.05 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Mon 7 Sep (kick-off) | 2.29 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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