Schalke 04 – Bayern Munich odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as heavy favourites against Schalke 04.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Schalke 04 – Bayern Munich: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 78% chance of an away win, 9% for Schalke 04 and 13% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Schalke 04 12.00 at Stake, the draw 8.00 at Stake, Bayern Munich 1.23 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Schalke 04 drifted from 8.80 at the opening to 12.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Schalke 04 or Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich, by a distance: the closing odds put 69.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Schalke 04 – Bayern Munich?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Schalke 04, Stake on the draw and bwin on Bayern Munich. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.3%) and VBET the least (92.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 12.00 best price | 8.00 best price | 1.22 | 97.3% |
| bwin | 9.25 | 7.50 | 1.23 best price | 94.8% |
| VBET | 11.00 | 6.40 | 1.20 | 92.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 12.00 | 8.00 | 1.23 | 97.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 9.25–12.00 · 29.7% | 6.40–8.00 · 25.0% | 1.20–1.23 · 2.5% | 92.6–97.3% |
How did the Schalke 04 – Bayern Munich odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Schalke 04 drifted from 8.80 when odds opened on 25 Aug to 12.00 at kick-off, a 36.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SCHALKE 04 | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 25 Aug (open) | 8.80 | 6.20 | 1.31 |
| Sun 30 Aug | 11.00 | 7.25 | 1.24 |
| Sat 5 Sep (kick-off) | 12.00 | 8.00 | 1.23 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 57.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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