Newcastle β Bournemouth odds
Newcastle went into the match as clear favourites against Bournemouth.
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2nd Half
Newcastle β Bournemouth: closing odds analysis
- Newcastle were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 29% for Bournemouth and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Newcastle 2.21 at Stake, the draw 3.70 at bwin, Bournemouth 3.30 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bournemouth drifted from 2.95 at the opening to 3.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Newcastle or Bournemouth?
Newcastle, clearly: the closing odds put 15.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Newcastle β Bournemouth?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Newcastle, bwin on the draw and Stake on Bournemouth. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.1%) and VBET the least (92.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | BOURNEMOUTH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.21 best price | 3.65 | 3.30 best price | 97.1% |
| bwin | 2.10 | 3.70 best price | 3.20 | 94.4% |
| VBET | 2.09 | 3.47 | 3.20 | 92.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.21 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 97.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.09β2.21 Β· 5.7% | 3.47β3.70 Β· 6.6% | 3.20β3.30 Β· 3.1% | 92.7β97.1% |
How did the Newcastle β Bournemouth odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bournemouth drifted from 2.95 when odds opened on 29 Aug to 3.30 at kick-off, a 11.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | BOURNEMOUTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 29 Aug (open) | 2.30 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| Wed 2 Sep | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Sat 5 Sep (kick-off) | 2.21 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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