Genoa β Como odds
Como went into the match as heavy favourites against Genoa.
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2nd Half
Genoa β Como: closing odds analysis
- Como were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of an away win, 17% for Genoa and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Genoa 5.80 at Stake, the draw 3.75 at Stake, Como 1.71 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.40 at the opening to 3.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Genoa or Como?
Como, by a distance: the closing odds put 39.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Genoa β Como?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Genoa, Stake on the draw and bwin on Como. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.0%) and bwin the least (94.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | GENOA | DRAW | COMO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 5.80 best price | 3.75 best price | 1.69 | 97.0% |
| VBET | 5.80 best price | 3.58 | 1.67 | 95.2% |
| bwin | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.71 best price | 94.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.80 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 97.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 5.00β5.80 Β· 16.0% | 3.58β3.75 Β· 4.7% | 1.67β1.71 Β· 2.4% | 94.1β97.0% |
How did the Genoa β Como odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.40 when odds opened on 30 Aug to 3.75 at kick-off, a 10.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | GENOA | DRAW | COMO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 30 Aug (open) | 5.50 | 3.40 | 1.81 |
| Wed 2 Sep | 5.20 | 3.40 | 1.84 |
| Fri 4 Sep (kick-off) | 5.80 | 3.75 | 1.71 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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