Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano odds
Barcelona went into the match as heavy favourites against Rayo Vallecano.
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2nd Half
Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano: closing odds analysis
- Barcelona were favourites: the closing odds implied a 86% chance of a home win, 5% for Rayo Vallecano and 9% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Barcelona 1.13 at bwin, the draw 12.00 at Stake, Rayo Vallecano 22.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Rayo Vallecano drifted from 12.00 at the opening to 22.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Barcelona or Rayo Vallecano?
Barcelona, by a distance: the closing odds put 81.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Barcelona, Stake on the draw and Stake on Rayo Vallecano. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.1%) and VBET the least (94.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | BARCELONA | DRAW | RAYO VALLECANO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.11 | 12.00 best price | 22.00 best price | 97.1% |
| bwin | 1.13 best price | 10.00 | 16.50 | 95.6% |
| VBET | 1.10 | 9.60 | 21.00 | 94.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.13 | 12.00 | 22.00 | 98.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.10–1.13 · 2.7% | 9.60–12.00 · 25.0% | 16.50–22.00 · 33.3% | 94.3–97.1% |
How did the Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Rayo Vallecano drifted from 12.00 when odds opened on 24 Aug to 22.00 at kick-off, a 83.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BARCELONA | DRAW | RAYO VALLECANO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 24 Aug (open) | 1.23 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Fri 28 Aug | 1.20 | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| Mon 31 Aug (kick-off) | 1.13 | 12.00 | 22.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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