Tottenham – Newcastle odds
Tottenham went into the match as clear favourites against Newcastle.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Tottenham – Newcastle: closing odds analysis
- Tottenham were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 31% for Newcastle and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Tottenham 2.23 at Stake, the draw 3.75 at Stake, Newcastle 3.15 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.65 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Tottenham or Newcastle?
Tottenham, clearly: the closing odds put 13.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Tottenham – Newcastle?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.8%) and bwin the least (94.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | TOTTENHAM | DRAW | NEWCASTLE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.23 best price | 3.75 best price | 3.15 best price | 96.8% |
| VBET | 2.19 | 3.64 | 3.15 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 94.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.23 | 3.75 | 3.15 | 96.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.15–2.23 · 3.7% | 3.64–3.75 · 3.0% | 3.10–3.15 · 1.6% | 94.5–96.8% |
How did the Tottenham – Newcastle odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.65 when odds opened on 23 Aug to 3.80 at kick-off, a 4.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TOTTENHAM | DRAW | NEWCASTLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23 Aug (open) | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Wed 26 Aug | 2.26 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Sat 29 Aug (kick-off) | 2.22 | 3.80 | 3.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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