Sevilla – Atlético Madrid odds
Atlético Madrid went into the match as heavy favourites against Sevilla.
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2nd Half
Sevilla – Atlético Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Atlético Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of an away win, 24% for Sevilla and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sevilla 4.20 at Stake, the draw 3.50 at Stake, Atlético Madrid 1.98 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sevilla drifted from 3.45 at the opening to 4.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sevilla or Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid, by a distance: the closing odds put 25.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sevilla – Atlético Madrid?
Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.2%) and bwin the least (94.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | SEVILLA | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 4.20 best price | 3.50 best price | 1.98 best price | 97.2% |
| VBET | 4.00 | 3.45 | 1.96 | 95.2% |
| bwin | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 94.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.98 | 97.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.00–4.20 · 5.0% | 3.40–3.50 · 2.9% | 1.95–1.98 · 1.5% | 94.6–97.2% |
How did the Sevilla – Atlético Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sevilla drifted from 3.45 when odds opened on 24 Aug to 4.20 at kick-off, a 21.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SEVILLA | DRAW | ATLÉTICO MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 24 Aug (open) | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
| Thu 27 Aug | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
| Sat 29 Aug (kick-off) | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 49.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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