BUNDESLIGA · SAT 29 AUG · 15:30

Mainz 05 – Paderborn odds

Mainz 05 went into the match as heavy favourites against Paderborn.

78 markets · closing odds across 3 bookmakers

FINISHEDThis match has finished. The prices below are the closing odds recorded before kick-off — they are archival and not comparable to live prices.

WHAT THE CLOSING ODDS IMPLIED

Mainz 05 62%Draw 21%Paderborn 17%

CLOSING PAYOUT · MATCH RESULT

96.9%

vs 94.9% average

KICK-OFF

15:30

Full Time

Match Result

3 outcomes

Mainz 05	1.54
Draw	4.90
Paderborn	5.60

Double Chance

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 / Draw	1.17
Mainz 05 / Paderborn	1.20
Draw / Paderborn	2.50

Over/Under 0.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.44
Under 0.5	2.60

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	1.60
Under 1.5	2.20

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	2.95
Under 2.5	1.35

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 3.5	1.77
Under 3.5	1.93

Over/Under 4.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 4.5	2.70
Under 4.5	1.41

Over/Under 5.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 5.5	1.85
Under 5.5	1.83

Over/Under 6.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 6.5	2.45
Under 6.5	1.47

Over/Under 7.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 7.5	1.25
Under 7.5	3.60

Over/Under 8.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 8.5	1.46
Under 8.5	2.50

Over/Under 9.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 9.5	1.80
Under 9.5	1.90

Over/Under 10.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 10.5	2.30
Under 10.5	1.53

Over/Under 11.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 11.5	3.10
Under 11.5	1.32

Over/Under 12.5 Goals

2 outcomes

Over 12.5	4.33
Under 12.5	1.18

Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes

Yes	1.60
No	2.33

Handicap -3

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 (-3)	7.25
Draw	—
Paderborn (+3)	1.23

Handicap -2

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 (-2)	3.80
Draw	4.60
Paderborn (+2)	1.58

Handicap -1

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 (-1)	2.20
Draw	3.75
Paderborn (+1)	2.45

Handicap +1

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 (+1)	1.16
Draw	7.00
Paderborn (-1)	11.00

Asian Total 1

2 outcomes

Over 1	1.04
Under 1	10.00

Asian Total 1.25

2 outcomes

Over 1.25	1.09
Under 1.25	7.00

Asian Total 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	1.14
Under 1.5	5.60

Asian Total 1.75

2 outcomes

Over 1.75	1.16
Under 1.75	5.00

Asian Total 2

2 outcomes

Over 2	1.19
Under 2	4.50

Asian Total 2.25

2 outcomes

Over 2.25	1.33
Under 2.25	3.25

Asian Total 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	1.47
Under 2.5	2.65

Asian Total 2.75

2 outcomes

Over 2.75	1.57
Under 2.75	2.37

Asian Total 3

2 outcomes

Over 3	1.71
Under 3	2.10

Asian Total 3.25

2 outcomes

Over 3.25	1.93
Under 3.25	1.84

Asian Total 3.5

2 outcomes

Over 3.5	2.15
Under 3.5	1.68

Asian Total 3.75

2 outcomes

Over 3.75	2.46
Under 3.75	1.53

Asian Total 4

2 outcomes

Over 4	2.95
Under 4	1.38

Asian Total 4.25

2 outcomes

Over 4.25	3.30
Under 4.25	1.32

Asian Total 4.5

2 outcomes

Over 4.5	3.55
Under 4.5	1.28

Asian Total 4.75

2 outcomes

Over 4.75	4.30
Under 4.75	1.21

Asian Total 5

2 outcomes

Over 5	5.60
Under 5	1.13

Mainz 05 Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.10
Under 0.5	7.40

Mainz 05 Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	1.45
Under 1.5	2.70

Mainz 05 Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	2.35
Under 2.5	1.57

Mainz 05 Over/Under 3.5

2 outcomes

Over 3.5	4.40
Under 3.5	1.20

Paderborn Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.44
Under 0.5	2.75

Paderborn Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	3.05
Under 1.5	1.37

Paderborn Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	8.80
Under 2.5	1.08

Correct Score

62 outcomes

0-0	24.00
0-1	21.00
0-2	35.00
0-3	101.00
0-4	351.00
0-5	301.00
1-0	10.00
1-1	9.60
1-2	16.00
1-3	45.00
1-4	151.00
1-5	301.00
2-0	8.80
2-1	8.00
2-2	14.00
2-3	40.00
2-4	151.00
2-5	251.00
3-0	12.00
3-1	11.00
3-2	19.00
3-3	50.00
3-4	201.00
3-5	301.00
4-0	20.00
4-1	18.00
4-2	35.00
4-3	90.00
4-4	301.00
4-5	301.00
5-0	34.00
5-1	31.00
5-2	51.00
5-3	126.00
5-4	276.00
5-5	301.00
Any other score	9.20
6-0	56.00
7-0	91.00
8-0	151.00
6-1	46.00
7-1	91.00
8-1	126.00
6-2	71.00
7-2	101.00
8-2	226.00
6-3	151.00
7-3	226.00
8-3	301.00
6-4	276.00
0-6	251.00
1-6	226.00
2-6	251.00
3-6	301.00
9-2	301.00
9-0	201.00
1-7	301.00
9-1	226.00
9-3	276.00
4-6	276.00
7-4	276.00
6-5	251.00

1st Half

1st Half — Match Result

3 outcomes

Mainz 05	1.97
Draw	2.70
Paderborn	5.40

1st Half — Double Chance

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 / Draw	1.17
Mainz 05 / Paderborn	1.45
Draw / Paderborn	1.83

1st Half — Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes

Yes	3.60
No	1.28

1st Half — Asian Total 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.24
Under 0.5	4.10

1st Half — Asian Total 0.75

2 outcomes

Over 0.75	1.31
Under 0.75	3.35

1st Half — Asian Total 1

2 outcomes

Over 1	1.43
Under 1	2.75

1st Half — Asian Total 1.25

2 outcomes

Over 1.25	1.77
Under 1.25	2.02

1st Half — Asian Total 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	2.10
Under 1.5	1.71

1st Half — Asian Total 1.75

2 outcomes

Over 1.75	2.55
Under 1.75	1.51

1st Half — Asian Total 2

2 outcomes

Over 2	3.45
Under 2	1.30

1st Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.49
Under 0.5	2.55

1st Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	3.30
Under 1.5	1.32

1st Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	8.40
Under 2.5	1.06

1st Half — Paderborn Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	2.42
Under 0.5	1.55

1st Half — Paderborn Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	8.40
Under 1.5	1.06

1st Half — Correct Score

17 outcomes

0-0	4.10
0-1	7.80
0-2	29.00
0-3	111.00
1-0	3.75
1-1	7.00
1-2	28.00
1-3	111.00
2-0	6.70
2-1	13.00
2-2	50.00
2-3	201.00
3-0	17.00
3-1	34.00
3-2	111.00
3-3	301.00
Any other score	7.80

2nd Half

2nd Half — Match Result

3 outcomes

Mainz 05	1.86
Draw	3.15
Paderborn	4.90

2nd Half — Double Chance

3 outcomes

Mainz 05 / Draw	1.21
Mainz 05 / Paderborn	1.39
Draw / Paderborn	1.97

2nd Half — Both Teams to Score

2 outcomes

Yes	2.85
No	1.41

2nd Half — Asian Total 0.75

2 outcomes

Over 0.75	1.25
Under 0.75	3.80

2nd Half — Asian Total 1

2 outcomes

Over 1	1.24
Under 1	3.95

2nd Half — Asian Total 1.25

2 outcomes

Over 1.25	1.48
Under 1.25	2.60

2nd Half — Asian Total 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	1.71
Under 1.5	2.10

2nd Half — Asian Total 1.75

2 outcomes

Over 1.75	1.95
Under 1.75	1.83

2nd Half — Asian Total 2

2 outcomes

Over 2	2.39
Under 2	1.56

2nd Half — Asian Total 2.25

2 outcomes

Over 2.25	2.80
Under 2.25	1.42

2nd Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	1.36
Under 0.5	3.05

2nd Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	2.60
Under 1.5	1.48

2nd Half — Mainz 05 Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	6.20
Under 2.5	1.12

2nd Half — Paderborn Over/Under 0.5

2 outcomes

Over 0.5	2.06
Under 0.5	1.74

2nd Half — Paderborn Over/Under 1.5

2 outcomes

Over 1.5	6.20
Under 1.5	1.11

2nd Half — Paderborn Over/Under 2.5

2 outcomes

Over 2.5	15.00
Under 2.5	1.01

2nd Half — Correct Score

17 outcomes

0-0	5.80
0-1	7.80
0-2	24.00
0-3	91.00
1-0	4.30
1-1	6.60
1-2	20.00
1-3	76.00
2-0	6.20
2-1	10.00
2-2	35.00
2-3	111.00
3-0	13.00
3-1	21.00
3-2	61.00
3-3	251.00
Any other score	5.00

Mainz 05 – Paderborn: closing odds analysis

By OddsStat odds data · Closing prices at kick-off, 29 Aug 2026, 15:30 · 3 bookmakers licensed in Denmark

KEY FACTS · AT KICK-OFF

Mainz 05 were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of a home win, 17% for Paderborn and 21% for a draw.
Best closing odds: Mainz 05 1.54 at Stake, the draw 4.90 at Stake, Paderborn 5.60 at Stake.
Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.9%.
Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.00 at the opening to 4.90 at kick-off.
The closing odds implied a 59% chance that both teams score.

Who were the favourites, Mainz 05 or Paderborn?

Mainz 05, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.4 percentage points between the two sides.

Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Mainz 05 – Paderborn?

Stake, on all three outcomes. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.9%) and VBET the least (93.2%).

Mainz 05 – Paderborn: closing match result odds and payout by bookmaker
BOOKMAKER	MAINZ 05	DRAW	PADERBORN	PAYOUT
Stake	1.54 best price	4.90 best price	5.60 best price	96.9%
bwin	1.52	4.60	5.50	94.6%
VBET	1.50	4.40	5.60 best price	93.2%
BEST PRICE	1.54	4.90	5.60	96.9%
SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH	1.50–1.54 · 2.7%	4.40–4.90 · 11.4%	5.50–5.60 · 1.8%	93.2–96.9%

Closing odds: the last prices recorded before kick-off · — = no price from that bookmaker.

The draw had the widest spread: 4.40 to 4.90 across 3 bookmakers, a difference of 11.4%.

How did the Mainz 05 – Paderborn odds move before kick-off?

The best price on the draw drifted from 4.00 when odds opened on 22 Jul to 4.90 at kick-off, a 22.5% rise.

BEST PRICE, DAILY

DATA

BEST PRICE AT	MAINZ 05	DRAW	PADERBORN
Wed 22 Jul (open)	1.87	4.00	4.70
Tue 11 Aug	1.73	4.00	4.70
Sat 29 Aug (kick-off)	1.54	4.90	5.60

How many goals did the odds expect?

Both teams to score was priced at 58.8%.

Both teams score59%

What the odds imply for each goal line in Mainz 05 – Paderborn.

How we calculate

Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.

Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.

Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.

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