Liverpool β Nottingham Forest odds
Liverpool went into the match as heavy favourites against Nottingham Forest.
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2nd Half
Liverpool β Nottingham Forest: closing odds analysis
- Liverpool were favourites: the closing odds implied a 65% chance of a home win, 16% for Nottingham Forest and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Liverpool 1.50 at Stake, the draw 5.00 at bwin, Nottingham Forest 6.40 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 at the opening to 5.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Liverpool or Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool, by a distance: the closing odds put 49.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Liverpool β Nottingham Forest?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Liverpool, bwin on the draw and VBET on Nottingham Forest. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.3%) and bwin the least (94.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | NOTTINGHAM FOREST | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.50 best price | 5.00 best price | 6.20 | 97.3% |
| VBET | 1.47 | 4.70 | 6.40 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 1.47 | 5.00 best price | 5.75 | 94.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.50 | 5.00 | 6.40 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.47β1.50 Β· 2.0% | 4.70β5.00 Β· 6.4% | 5.75β6.40 Β· 11.3% | 94.9β97.3% |
How did the Liverpool β Nottingham Forest odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.80 when odds opened on 23 Aug to 5.00 at kick-off, a 4.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LIVERPOOL | DRAW | NOTTINGHAM FOREST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23 Aug (open) | 1.50 | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| Wed 26 Aug | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| Sat 29 Aug (kick-off) | 1.50 | 5.00 | 6.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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