Lille β Paris Saint-Germain odds
Paris Saint-Germain went into the match as heavy favourites against Lille.
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2nd Half
Lille β Paris Saint-Germain: closing odds analysis
- Paris Saint-Germain were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of an away win, 21% for Lille and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lille 4.70 at VBET, the draw 4.00 at Stake, Paris Saint-Germain 1.78 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lille drifted from 4.50 at the opening to 4.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lille or Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain, by a distance: the closing odds put 33.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lille β Paris Saint-Germain?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Lille, Stake on the draw and Stake on Paris Saint-Germain. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.2%) and bwin the least (94.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | LILLE | DRAW | PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 4.60 | 4.00 best price | 1.78 best price | 97.2% |
| VBET | 4.70 best price | 3.86 | 1.73 | 95.3% |
| bwin | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 94.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.78 | 97.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.40β4.70 Β· 6.8% | 3.86β4.00 Β· 3.6% | 1.73β1.78 Β· 2.9% | 94.2β97.2% |
How did the Lille β Paris Saint-Germain odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lille drifted from 4.50 when odds opened on 24 Aug to 4.70 at kick-off, a 4.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LILLE | DRAW | PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 24 Aug (open) | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Wed 26 Aug | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.75 |
| Fri 28 Aug (kick-off) | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.78 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 Γ· decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 Γ· (1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ + 1/oddsβ): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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