Thun – Lech Poznan odds
Lech Poznan went into the match as narrow favourites against Thun.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Thun – Lech Poznan: closing odds analysis
- Lech Poznan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of an away win, 32% for Thun and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Thun 3.00 at bwin, the draw 4.00 at VBET, Lech Poznan 2.30 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.70 at the opening to 4.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 64% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Thun or Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan, but only just: the closing odds put 10.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Thun – Lech Poznan?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Thun, VBET on the draw and bwin on Lech Poznan. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.1%) and VBET the least (93.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | THUN | DRAW | LECH POZNAN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.00 best price | 3.40 | 2.30 best price | 94.1% |
| Stake | 2.90 | 3.95 | 2.12 | 93.5% |
| VBET | 2.79 | 4.00 best price | 2.16 | 93.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.30 | 98.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.79–3.00 · 7.5% | 3.40–4.00 · 17.6% | 2.12–2.30 · 8.5% | 93.3–94.1% |
How did the Thun – Lech Poznan odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.70 when odds opened on 22 Aug to 4.00 at kick-off, a 8.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | THUN | DRAW | LECH POZNAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 22 Aug (open) | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| Tue 25 Aug | 2.90 | 4.10 | 2.37 |
| Thu 27 Aug (kick-off) | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 64.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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