Qarabag – Twente odds
Twente went into the match as clear favourites against Qarabag.
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Qarabag – Twente: closing odds analysis
- Twente were favourites: the closing odds implied a 48% chance of an away win, 25% for Qarabag and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Qarabag 3.88 at VBET, the draw 3.75 at Stake, Twente 1.95 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Qarabag drifted from 3.30 at the opening to 3.88 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Qarabag or Twente?
Twente, clearly: the closing odds put 23.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Qarabag – Twente?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Qarabag, Stake on the draw and bwin on Twente. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.2%) and bwin the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | QARABAG | DRAW | TWENTE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.88 best price | 3.64 | 1.93 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 3.65 | 3.75 best price | 1.89 | 93.5% |
| bwin | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.95 best price | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.88 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 96.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.65–3.88 · 6.3% | 3.10–3.75 · 21.0% | 1.89–1.95 · 3.2% | 90.4–95.2% |
How did the Qarabag – Twente odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Qarabag drifted from 3.30 when odds opened on 23 Aug to 3.88 at kick-off, a 17.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | QARABAG | DRAW | TWENTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23 Aug (open) | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Tue 25 Aug | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Thu 27 Aug (kick-off) | 3.88 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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