Larne – Lincoln Red Imps odds
Larne went into the match as clear favourites against Lincoln Red Imps.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Larne – Lincoln Red Imps: closing odds analysis
- Larne were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of a home win, 26% for Lincoln Red Imps and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Larne 2.20 at bwin, the draw 3.50 at Stake, Lincoln Red Imps 3.60 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Larne drifted from 2.05 at the opening to 2.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Larne or Lincoln Red Imps?
Larne, clearly: the closing odds put 18.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Larne – Lincoln Red Imps?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Larne, Stake on the draw and bwin on Lincoln Red Imps. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.7%) and VBET the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | LARNE | DRAW | LINCOLN RED IMPS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.00 | 3.50 best price | 3.55 | 93.7% |
| bwin | 2.20 best price | 2.75 | 3.60 best price | 91.2% |
| VBET | 1.98 | 3.25 | 3.47 | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 98.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.98–2.20 · 11.1% | 2.75–3.50 · 27.3% | 3.47–3.60 · 3.7% | 90.8–93.7% |
How did the Larne – Lincoln Red Imps odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Larne drifted from 2.05 when odds opened on 23 Aug to 2.20 at kick-off, a 7.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LARNE | DRAW | LINCOLN RED IMPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23 Aug (open) | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.67 |
| Tue 25 Aug | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Thu 27 Aug (kick-off) | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 49.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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