Freiburg – Motherwell odds
Freiburg went into the match as heavy favourites against Motherwell.
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2nd Half
Freiburg – Motherwell: closing odds analysis
- Freiburg were favourites: the closing odds implied a 77% chance of a home win, 11% for Motherwell and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Freiburg 1.24 at bwin, the draw 8.75 at bwin, Motherwell 13.00 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 6.60 at the opening to 8.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 45% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Freiburg or Motherwell?
Freiburg, by a distance: the closing odds put 66.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Freiburg – Motherwell?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Freiburg, bwin on the draw and Stake on Motherwell. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.7%) and bwin the least (89.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | FREIBURG | DRAW | MOTHERWELL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.17 | 7.40 | 13.00 best price | 93.7% |
| VBET | 1.14 | 6.90 | 13.00 best price | 91.0% |
| bwin | 1.24 best price | 8.75 best price | 5.00 | 89.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.24 | 8.75 | 13.00 | 100.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.14–1.24 · 8.8% | 6.90–8.75 · 26.8% | 5.00–13.00 · 160.0% | 89.2–93.7% |
How did the Freiburg – Motherwell odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 6.60 when odds opened on 24 Aug to 8.75 at kick-off, a 32.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FREIBURG | DRAW | MOTHERWELL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 24 Aug (open) | 1.30 | 6.60 | 11.00 |
| Wed 26 Aug | 1.30 | 6.60 | 11.00 |
| Thu 27 Aug (kick-off) | 1.24 | 8.75 | 13.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 44.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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