AGF – OB odds
AGF went into the match as clear favourites against OB.
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1st Half
2nd Half
AGF – OB: closing odds analysis
- AGF were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of a home win, 26% for OB and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AGF 1.92 at Stake, the draw 3.80 at Stake, OB 3.70 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on OB shortened from 4.33 at the opening to 3.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AGF or OB?
AGF, clearly: the closing odds put 23.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AGF – OB?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on AGF, Stake on the draw and bwin on OB. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (94.5%) and VBET the least (93.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AGF | DRAW | OB | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.92 best price | 3.80 best price | 3.65 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.70 best price | 94.1% |
| VBET | 1.88 | 3.78 | 3.67 | 93.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.92 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 94.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.88–1.92 · 2.1% | 3.75–3.80 · 1.3% | 3.65–3.70 · 1.4% | 93.6–94.5% |
How did the AGF – OB odds move before kick-off?
The best price on OB shortened from 4.33 when odds opened on 17 Aug to 3.70 at kick-off, a 14.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AGF | DRAW | OB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 17 Aug (open) | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Thu 20 Aug | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Sun 23 Aug (kick-off) | 1.92 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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