Valencia – Celta Vigo odds
Valencia went into the match as narrow favourites against Celta Vigo.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Valencia – Celta Vigo: closing odds analysis
- Valencia were favourites: the closing odds implied a 39% chance of a home win, 31% for Celta Vigo and 31% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valencia 2.50 at Stake, the draw 3.20 at Stake, Celta Vigo 3.10 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valencia drifted from 2.39 at the opening to 2.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valencia or Celta Vigo?
Valencia, but only just: the closing odds put 8.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valencia – Celta Vigo?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Valencia, Stake on the draw and bwin on Celta Vigo. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (96.6%) and VBET the least (93.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALENCIA | DRAW | CELTA VIGO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.50 best price | 3.20 best price | 3.10 best price | 96.6% |
| bwin | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.10 best price | 94.2% |
| VBET | 2.44 | 3.02 | 3.04 | 93.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 96.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.40–2.50 · 4.2% | 3.02–3.20 · 6.0% | 3.04–3.10 · 2.0% | 93.5–96.6% |
How did the Valencia – Celta Vigo odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valencia drifted from 2.39 when odds opened on 11 Aug to 2.50 at kick-off, a 4.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALENCIA | DRAW | CELTA VIGO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 11 Aug (open) | 2.39 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Sun 16 Aug | 2.19 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Sat 22 Aug (kick-off) | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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