Twente – Qarabag odds
Twente went into the match as heavy favourites against Qarabag.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Twente – Qarabag: closing odds analysis
- Twente were favourites: the closing odds implied a 65% chance of a home win, 15% for Qarabag and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Twente 1.52 at bwin, the draw 5.00 at VBET, Qarabag 6.80 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Qarabag drifted from 3.91 at the opening to 6.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Twente or Qarabag?
Twente, by a distance: the closing odds put 49.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Twente – Qarabag?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Twente, VBET on the draw and VBET on Qarabag. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.1%) and bwin the least (91.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | TWENTE | DRAW | QARABAG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.42 | 5.00 best price | 6.80 best price | 95.1% |
| Stake | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.40 | 93.5% |
| bwin | 1.52 best price | 4.00 | 5.50 | 91.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.52 | 5.00 | 6.80 | 99.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.41–1.52 · 7.8% | 4.00–5.00 · 25.0% | 5.50–6.80 · 23.6% | 91.8–95.1% |
How did the Twente – Qarabag odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Qarabag drifted from 3.91 when odds opened on 16 Aug to 6.80 at kick-off, a 73.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TWENTE | DRAW | QARABAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 16 Aug (open) | 2.20 | 3.55 | 3.91 |
| Tue 18 Aug | 1.77 | 3.95 | 4.90 |
| Thu 20 Aug (kick-off) | 1.52 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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