Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv odds
Lugano went into the match as heavy favourites against Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv: closing odds analysis
- Lugano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 51% chance of a home win, 23% for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lugano 1.93 at bwin, the draw 3.80 at Stake, Maccabi Tel Aviv 4.30 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Maccabi Tel Aviv drifted from 3.50 at the opening to 4.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lugano or Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Lugano, by a distance: the closing odds put 28.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Lugano, Stake on the draw and Stake on Maccabi Tel Aviv. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.4%) and VBET the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | LUGANO | DRAW | MACCABI TEL AVIV | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.74 | 3.80 best price | 4.30 best price | 93.4% |
| bwin | 1.93 best price | 3.10 | 4.00 | 91.7% |
| VBET | 1.73 | 3.76 | 3.89 | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.93 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 98.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.73–1.93 · 11.6% | 3.10–3.80 · 22.6% | 3.89–4.30 · 10.5% | 90.8–93.4% |
How did the Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Maccabi Tel Aviv drifted from 3.50 when odds opened on 17 Aug to 4.30 at kick-off, a 22.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LUGANO | DRAW | MACCABI TEL AVIV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 17 Aug (open) | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Wed 19 Aug | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Thu 20 Aug (kick-off) | 1.93 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 53.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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