Kairat Almaty – Anderlecht odds
Anderlecht went into the match as narrow favourites against Kairat Almaty.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Kairat Almaty – Anderlecht: closing odds analysis
- Anderlecht were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of an away win, 29% for Kairat Almaty and 31% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Kairat Almaty 3.40 at bwin, the draw 3.20 at Stake, Anderlecht 2.45 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 3.45 at the opening to 3.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Kairat Almaty or Anderlecht?
Anderlecht, but only just: the closing odds put 12.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Kairat Almaty – Anderlecht?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Kairat Almaty, Stake on the draw and bwin on Anderlecht. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.4%) and VBET the least (93.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | KAIRAT ALMATY | DRAW | ANDERLECHT | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.40 best price | 2.80 | 2.45 best price | 94.4% |
| Stake | 3.25 | 3.20 best price | 2.23 | 93.6% |
| VBET | 3.18 | 3.18 | 2.26 | 93.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.45 | 98.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.18–3.40 · 6.9% | 2.80–3.20 · 14.3% | 2.23–2.45 · 9.9% | 93.3–94.4% |
How did the Kairat Almaty – Anderlecht odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 3.45 when odds opened on 15 Aug to 3.20 at kick-off, a 7.2% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | KAIRAT ALMATY | DRAW | ANDERLECHT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 15 Aug (open) | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| Tue 18 Aug | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Thu 20 Aug (kick-off) | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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