Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano odds
Sevilla went into the match as narrow favourites against Rayo Vallecano.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: closing odds analysis
- Sevilla were favourites: the closing odds implied a 38% chance of a home win, 30% for Rayo Vallecano and 33% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sevilla 2.60 at Stake, the draw 2.95 at bwin, Rayo Vallecano 3.29 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sevilla drifted from 2.30 at the opening to 2.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 46% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sevilla or Rayo Vallecano?
Sevilla, but only just: the closing odds put 7.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Sevilla, bwin on the draw and VBET on Rayo Vallecano. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (97.0%) and bwin the least (94.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | SEVILLA | DRAW | RAYO VALLECANO | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.60 best price | 2.95 best price | 3.25 | 97.0% |
| VBET | 2.51 | 2.88 | 3.29 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 2.50 | 2.95 best price | 3.10 | 94.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.60 | 2.95 | 3.29 | 97.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.50–2.60 · 4.0% | 2.88–2.95 · 2.4% | 3.10–3.29 · 6.1% | 94.2–97.0% |
How did the Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sevilla drifted from 2.30 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 2.60 at kick-off, a 13.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SEVILLA | DRAW | RAYO VALLECANO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Thu 6 Aug | 2.31 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Sat 15 Aug (kick-off) | 2.60 | 2.95 | 3.29 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 45.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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