Motherwell – HJK Helsinki odds
Motherwell went into the match as heavy favourites against HJK Helsinki.
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2nd Half
Motherwell – HJK Helsinki: closing odds analysis
- Motherwell were favourites: the closing odds implied a 51% chance of a home win, 22% for HJK Helsinki and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Motherwell 1.90 at bwin, the draw 3.55 at Stake, HJK Helsinki 4.30 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on HJK Helsinki drifted from 3.95 at the opening to 4.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Motherwell or HJK Helsinki?
Motherwell, by a distance: the closing odds put 29.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Motherwell – HJK Helsinki?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Motherwell, Stake on the draw and Stake on HJK Helsinki. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.7%) and bwin the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | MOTHERWELL | DRAW | HJK HELSINKI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.77 | 3.55 best price | 4.30 best price | 92.7% |
| VBET | 1.75 | 3.38 | 4.30 best price | 90.9% |
| bwin | 1.90 best price | 3.00 | 4.10 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.90 | 3.55 | 4.30 | 96.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.75–1.90 · 8.6% | 3.00–3.55 · 18.3% | 4.10–4.30 · 4.9% | 90.6–92.7% |
How did the Motherwell – HJK Helsinki odds move before kick-off?
The best price on HJK Helsinki drifted from 3.95 when odds opened on 9 Aug to 4.30 at kick-off, a 8.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MOTHERWELL | DRAW | HJK HELSINKI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9 Aug (open) | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.95 |
| Tue 11 Aug | 1.83 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Thu 13 Aug (kick-off) | 1.90 | 3.55 | 4.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 51.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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