Ilves – Rijeka odds
Rijeka went into the match as heavy favourites against Ilves.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Ilves – Rijeka: closing odds analysis
- Rijeka were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of an away win, 22% for Ilves and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Ilves 4.20 at bwin, the draw 3.41 at VBET, Rijeka 1.95 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Ilves shortened from 4.90 at the opening to 4.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Ilves or Rijeka?
Rijeka, by a distance: the closing odds put 27.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Ilves – Rijeka?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Ilves, VBET on the draw and bwin on Rijeka. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.0%) and bwin the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | ILVES | DRAW | RIJEKA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.86 | 93.0% |
| VBET | 4.20 best price | 3.41 best price | 1.76 | 90.9% |
| bwin | 4.20 best price | 2.85 | 1.95 best price | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.20 | 3.41 | 1.95 | 95.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.10–4.20 · 2.4% | 2.85–3.41 · 19.6% | 1.76–1.95 · 10.8% | 90.8–93.0% |
How did the Ilves – Rijeka odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Ilves shortened from 4.90 when odds opened on 9 Aug to 4.20 at kick-off, a 14.3% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ILVES | DRAW | RIJEKA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9 Aug (open) | 4.90 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
| Tue 11 Aug | 4.50 | 3.55 | 1.85 |
| Thu 13 Aug (kick-off) | 4.20 | 3.41 | 1.95 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 48.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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