Valur – FC Nordsjælland odds
FC Nordsjælland went into the match as heavy favourites against Valur.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Valur – FC Nordsjælland: closing odds analysis
- FC Nordsjælland were favourites: the closing odds implied a 72% chance of an away win, 12% for Valur and 16% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valur 8.40 at Stake, the draw 6.20 at Stake, FC Nordsjælland 1.33 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valur drifted from 4.50 at the opening to 8.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valur or FC Nordsjælland?
FC Nordsjælland, by a distance: the closing odds put 59.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valur – FC Nordsjælland?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Valur, Stake on the draw and bwin on FC Nordsjælland. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and bwin the least (91.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALUR | DRAW | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 8.00 | 6.00 | 1.32 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 8.40 best price | 6.20 best price | 1.25 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 best price | 91.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 8.40 | 6.20 | 1.33 | 96.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 7.00–8.40 · 20.0% | 5.00–6.20 · 24.0% | 1.25–1.33 · 6.4% | 91.3–95.3% |
How did the Valur – FC Nordsjælland odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valur drifted from 4.50 when odds opened on 31 Jul to 8.40 at kick-off, a 86.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALUR | DRAW | FC NORDSJÆLLAND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 31 Jul (open) | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
| Mon 3 Aug | 7.40 | 5.00 | 1.46 |
| Thu 6 Aug (kick-off) | 8.40 | 6.20 | 1.33 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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