HJK Helsinki – Motherwell odds
HJK Helsinki went into the match as clear favourites against Motherwell.
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2nd Half
HJK Helsinki – Motherwell: closing odds analysis
- HJK Helsinki were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 29% for Motherwell and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: HJK Helsinki 2.25 at bwin, the draw 3.51 at VBET, Motherwell 3.20 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Motherwell drifted from 2.80 at the opening to 3.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, HJK Helsinki or Motherwell?
HJK Helsinki, clearly: the closing odds put 13.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on HJK Helsinki – Motherwell?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on HJK Helsinki, VBET on the draw and Stake on Motherwell. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.7%) and bwin the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | HJK HELSINKI | DRAW | MOTHERWELL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.20 best price | 92.7% |
| VBET | 2.05 | 3.51 best price | 3.06 | 91.0% |
| bwin | 2.25 best price | 2.95 | 3.10 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.25 | 3.51 | 3.20 | 96.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.05–2.25 · 9.8% | 2.95–3.51 · 19.0% | 3.06–3.20 · 4.6% | 90.4–92.7% |
How did the HJK Helsinki – Motherwell odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Motherwell drifted from 2.80 when odds opened on 3 Aug to 3.20 at kick-off, a 14.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HJK HELSINKI | DRAW | MOTHERWELL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 3 Aug (open) | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Wed 5 Aug | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Thu 6 Aug (kick-off) | 2.25 | 3.51 | 3.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 57.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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