Benfica – Hearts odds
Benfica went into the match as heavy favourites against Hearts.
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2nd Half
Benfica – Hearts: closing odds analysis
- Benfica were favourites: the closing odds implied a 84% chance of a home win, 6% for Hearts and 10% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Benfica 1.18 at bwin, the draw 11.00 at VBET, Hearts 21.00 at VBET.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hearts drifted from 12.00 at the opening to 21.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 45% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Benfica or Hearts?
Benfica, by a distance: the closing odds put 78.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Benfica – Hearts?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Benfica, VBET on the draw and VBET on Hearts. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (95.7%) and Stake the least (92.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BENFICA | DRAW | HEARTS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.18 best price | 7.75 | 14.50 | 95.7% |
| VBET | 1.09 | 11.00 best price | 21.00 best price | 94.7% |
| Stake | 1.09 | 9.40 | 17.00 | 92.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.18 | 11.00 | 21.00 | 101.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.09–1.18 · 8.3% | 7.75–11.00 · 41.9% | 14.50–21.00 · 44.8% | 92.4–95.7% |
How did the Benfica – Hearts odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hearts drifted from 12.00 when odds opened on 1 Aug to 21.00 at kick-off, a 75.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BENFICA | DRAW | HEARTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1 Aug (open) | 1.28 | 6.80 | 12.00 |
| Tue 4 Aug | 1.21 | 8.40 | 19.00 |
| Thu 6 Aug (kick-off) | 1.18 | 11.00 | 21.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 44.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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