Ajax – Shelbourne odds
Ajax went into the match as heavy favourites against Shelbourne.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Ajax – Shelbourne: closing odds analysis
- Ajax were favourites: the closing odds implied a 88% chance of a home win, 4% for Shelbourne and 9% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Ajax 1.11 at bwin, the draw 13.00 at VBET, Shelbourne 34.00 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Shelbourne drifted from 11.00 at the opening to 34.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 38% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Ajax or Shelbourne?
Ajax, by a distance: the closing odds put 83.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Ajax – Shelbourne?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Ajax, VBET on the draw and VBET on Shelbourne. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and Stake the least (93.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | AJAX | DRAW | SHELBOURNE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.06 | 13.00 best price | 34.00 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 1.11 best price | 8.75 | 18.00 | 93.4% |
| Stake | 1.05 | 12.00 | 27.00 | 93.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.11 | 13.00 | 34.00 | 99.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.05–1.11 · 5.7% | 8.75–13.00 · 48.6% | 18.00–34.00 · 88.9% | 93.2–95.3% |
How did the Ajax – Shelbourne odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Shelbourne drifted from 11.00 when odds opened on 31 Jul to 34.00 at kick-off, a 209.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AJAX | DRAW | SHELBOURNE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 31 Jul (open) | 1.29 | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| Mon 3 Aug | 1.29 | 6.80 | 11.00 |
| Thu 6 Aug (kick-off) | 1.11 | 13.00 | 34.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 38.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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