Zira – Paide Linnameeskond odds
Zira went into the match as heavy favourites against Paide Linnameeskond.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Zira – Paide Linnameeskond: closing odds analysis
- Zira were favourites: the closing odds implied a 73% chance of a home win, 8% for Paide Linnameeskond and 19% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Zira 1.33 at bwin, the draw 5.80 at Stake, Paide Linnameeskond 15.00 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Paide Linnameeskond drifted from 10.00 at the opening to 15.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 38% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Zira or Paide Linnameeskond?
Zira, by a distance: the closing odds put 65.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Zira – Paide Linnameeskond?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Zira, Stake on the draw and VBET on Paide Linnameeskond. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.4%) and VBET the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | ZIRA | DRAW | PAIDE LINNAMEESKOND | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.20 | 5.80 best price | 13.00 | 92.4% |
| bwin | 1.33 best price | 4.33 | 9.75 | 92.1% |
| VBET | 1.23 | 4.50 | 15.00 best price | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.33 | 5.80 | 15.00 | 100.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.20–1.33 · 10.8% | 4.33–5.80 · 33.9% | 9.75–15.00 · 53.8% | 90.8–92.4% |
How did the Zira – Paide Linnameeskond odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Paide Linnameeskond drifted from 10.00 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 15.00 at kick-off, a 50.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ZIRA | DRAW | PAIDE LINNAMEESKOND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 1.35 | 5.60 | 10.00 |
| Tue 28 Jul | 1.33 | 5.60 | 11.00 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 1.33 | 5.80 | 15.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 38.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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