Valletta – Raków Częstochowa odds
Raków Częstochowa went into the match as heavy favourites against Valletta.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Valletta – Raków Częstochowa: closing odds analysis
- Raków Częstochowa were favourites: the closing odds implied a 59% chance of an away win, 17% for Valletta and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valletta 5.40 at Stake, the draw 4.30 at Stake, Raków Częstochowa 1.62 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valletta shortened from 5.80 at the opening to 5.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valletta or Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa, by a distance: the closing odds put 41.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valletta – Raków Częstochowa?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Valletta, Stake on the draw and bwin on Raków Częstochowa. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.0%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALLETTA | DRAW | RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 5.40 best price | 4.30 best price | 1.52 | 93.0% |
| bwin | 5.25 | 3.50 | 1.62 best price | 91.5% |
| VBET | 5.30 | 3.95 | 1.52 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.62 | 96.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 5.25–5.40 · 2.9% | 3.50–4.30 · 22.9% | 1.52–1.62 · 6.6% | 90.9–93.0% |
How did the Valletta – Raków Częstochowa odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valletta shortened from 5.80 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 5.40 at kick-off, a 6.9% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALLETTA | DRAW | RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 5.80 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
| Tue 28 Jul | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 5.40 | 4.30 | 1.62 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 52.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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