Nomme Kalju – Shelbourne odds
Shelbourne went into the match as clear favourites against Nomme Kalju.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Nomme Kalju – Shelbourne: closing odds analysis
- Shelbourne were favourites: the closing odds implied a 46% chance of an away win, 27% for Nomme Kalju and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Nomme Kalju 3.41 at VBET, the draw 3.60 at Stake, Shelbourne 2.15 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Nomme Kalju drifted from 3.00 at the opening to 3.41 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Nomme Kalju or Shelbourne?
Shelbourne, clearly: the closing odds put 18.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Nomme Kalju – Shelbourne?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Nomme Kalju, Stake on the draw and bwin on Shelbourne. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.9%) and bwin the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | NOMME KALJU | DRAW | SHELBOURNE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.40 | 3.60 best price | 1.98 | 92.9% |
| VBET | 3.41 best price | 3.53 | 1.91 | 90.9% |
| bwin | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.15 best price | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.41 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 96.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.30–3.41 · 3.3% | 3.00–3.60 · 20.0% | 1.91–2.15 · 12.6% | 90.8–92.9% |
How did the Nomme Kalju – Shelbourne odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Nomme Kalju drifted from 3.00 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 3.41 at kick-off, a 13.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NOMME KALJU | DRAW | SHELBOURNE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Tue 28 Jul | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 3.41 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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