Jablonec – Varaždin odds
Jablonec went into the match as heavy favourites against Varaždin.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Jablonec – Varaždin: closing odds analysis
- Jablonec were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of a home win, 20% for Varaždin and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Jablonec 1.78 at bwin, the draw 3.75 at Stake, Varaždin 4.80 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 4.10 at the opening to 3.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Jablonec or Varaždin?
Jablonec, by a distance: the closing odds put 34.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Jablonec – Varaždin?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Jablonec, Stake on the draw and Stake on Varaždin. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.1%) and VBET the least (91.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | JABLONEC | DRAW | VARAŽDIN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.67 | 3.75 best price | 4.80 best price | 93.1% |
| bwin | 1.78 best price | 3.20 | 4.60 | 91.6% |
| VBET | 1.66 | 3.59 | 4.60 | 91.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.80 | 96.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.66–1.78 · 7.2% | 3.20–3.75 · 17.2% | 4.60–4.80 · 4.3% | 91.0–93.1% |
How did the Jablonec – Varaždin odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 4.10 when odds opened on 27 Jul to 3.75 at kick-off, a 8.5% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | JABLONEC | DRAW | VARAŽDIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 Jul (open) | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| Wed 29 Jul | 1.75 | 3.95 | 4.60 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 54.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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