FC Nordsjælland – GAIS odds
FC Nordsjælland went into the match as heavy favourites against GAIS.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
FC Nordsjælland – GAIS: closing odds analysis
- FC Nordsjælland were favourites: the closing odds implied a 60% chance of a home win, 17% for GAIS and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: FC Nordsjælland 1.63 at bwin, the draw 4.30 at Stake, GAIS 6.70 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on GAIS drifted from 4.75 at the opening to 6.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, FC Nordsjælland or GAIS?
FC Nordsjælland, by a distance: the closing odds put 43.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on FC Nordsjælland – GAIS?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on FC Nordsjælland, Stake on the draw and VBET on GAIS. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and bwin the least (91.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | GAIS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.54 | 3.99 | 6.70 best price | 95.3% |
| Stake | 1.51 | 4.30 best price | 5.40 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 1.63 best price | 3.50 | 5.00 | 91.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.63 | 4.30 | 6.70 | 100.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.51–1.63 · 7.9% | 3.50–4.30 · 22.9% | 5.00–6.70 · 34.0% | 91.0–95.3% |
How did the FC Nordsjælland – GAIS odds move before kick-off?
The best price on GAIS drifted from 4.75 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 6.70 at kick-off, a 41.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FC NORDSJÆLLAND | DRAW | GAIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Tue 28 Jul | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 1.63 | 4.30 | 6.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 55.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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