CSKA Sofia – Qarabag odds
CSKA Sofia and Qarabag went into the match almost level in the odds.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
CSKA Sofia – Qarabag: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 34% for CSKA Sofia, 31% for a draw and 35% for Qarabag.
- Best closing odds: CSKA Sofia 2.85 at bwin, the draw 3.15 at Stake, Qarabag 2.80 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Qarabag drifted from 2.45 at the opening to 2.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, CSKA Sofia or Qarabag?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 1.2 percentage points between CSKA Sofia and Qarabag.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on CSKA Sofia – Qarabag?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on CSKA Sofia, Stake on the draw and bwin on Qarabag. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.4%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | CSKA SOFIA | DRAW | QARABAG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 2.85 best price | 2.85 | 2.80 best price | 94.4% |
| Stake | 2.65 | 3.15 best price | 2.60 | 92.6% |
| VBET | 2.68 | 3.04 | 2.51 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.85 | 3.15 | 2.80 | 97.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.65–2.85 · 7.5% | 2.85–3.15 · 10.5% | 2.51–2.80 · 11.6% | 90.9–94.4% |
How did the CSKA Sofia – Qarabag odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Qarabag drifted from 2.45 when odds opened on 24 Jul to 2.80 at kick-off, a 14.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CSKA SOFIA | DRAW | QARABAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 24 Jul (open) | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Mon 27 Jul | 2.75 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 2.85 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 50.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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