Benfica – St. Gallen odds
Benfica went into the match as heavy favourites against St. Gallen.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Benfica – St. Gallen: closing odds analysis
- Benfica were favourites: the closing odds implied a 80% chance of a home win, 7% for St. Gallen and 13% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Benfica 1.27 at bwin, the draw 8.00 at Stake, St. Gallen 21.00 at VBET.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.60 at the opening to 8.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 47% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Benfica or St. Gallen?
Benfica, by a distance: the closing odds put 73.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Benfica – St. Gallen?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Benfica, Stake on the draw and VBET on St. Gallen. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.9%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | BENFICA | DRAW | ST. GALLEN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.27 best price | 6.00 | 10.00 | 94.9% |
| Stake | 1.12 | 8.00 best price | 15.00 | 92.2% |
| VBET | 1.08 | 7.90 | 21.00 best price | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.27 | 8.00 | 21.00 | 104.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.08–1.27 · 17.6% | 6.00–8.00 · 33.3% | 10.00–21.00 · 110.0% | 90.9–94.9% |
How did the Benfica – St. Gallen odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.60 when odds opened on 24 Jul to 8.00 at kick-off, a 42.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BENFICA | DRAW | ST. GALLEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 24 Jul (open) | 1.33 | 5.60 | 15.00 |
| Mon 27 Jul | 1.31 | 6.60 | 11.00 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 1.27 | 8.00 | 21.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 46.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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