Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca odds
Beitar Jerusalem went into the match as clear favourites against AEK Larnaca.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca: closing odds analysis
- Beitar Jerusalem were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of a home win, 26% for AEK Larnaca and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Beitar Jerusalem 2.15 at bwin, the draw 3.41 at VBET, AEK Larnaca 3.70 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AEK Larnaca drifted from 3.00 at the opening to 3.70 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Beitar Jerusalem or AEK Larnaca?
Beitar Jerusalem, clearly: the closing odds put 19.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Beitar Jerusalem, VBET on the draw and bwin on AEK Larnaca. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.5%) and VBET the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | BEITAR JERUSALEM | DRAW | AEK LARNACA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 92.5% |
| bwin | 2.15 best price | 2.75 | 3.70 best price | 91.0% |
| VBET | 1.93 | 3.41 best price | 3.45 | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.15 | 3.41 | 3.70 | 97.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.93–2.15 · 11.4% | 2.75–3.41 · 24.0% | 3.45–3.70 · 7.2% | 90.8–92.5% |
How did the Beitar Jerusalem – AEK Larnaca odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AEK Larnaca drifted from 3.00 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 3.70 at kick-off, a 23.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BEITAR JERUSALEM | DRAW | AEK LARNACA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Tue 28 Jul | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Thu 30 Jul (kick-off) | 2.15 | 3.41 | 3.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 49.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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