Lech Poznan – AGF odds
Lech Poznan went into the match as heavy favourites against AGF.
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2nd Half
Lech Poznan – AGF: closing odds analysis
- Lech Poznan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of a home win, 23% for AGF and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lech Poznan 1.98 at bwin, the draw 3.94 at VBET, AGF 4.30 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 3.94 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lech Poznan or AGF?
Lech Poznan, by a distance: the closing odds put 27.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lech Poznan – AGF?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Lech Poznan, VBET on the draw and VBET on AGF. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.2%) and Bet25 the least (88.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | LECH POZNAN | DRAW | AGF | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.60 | 4.15 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 1.77 | 3.94 best price | 4.30 best price | 95.1% |
| Stake | 1.79 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 1.98 best price | 3.30 | 3.90 | 93.9% |
| Betmaster | 1.87 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 93.4% |
| Betoro | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 91.7% |
| Casino House | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 91.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.84 | 3.42 | 3.91 | 91.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.83 | 3.39 | 3.88 | 91.0% |
| Casinostuen | 1.83 | 3.39 | 3.88 | 91.0% |
| Betinia | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 90.9% |
| CampoBet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 90.9% |
| Casinomoto | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 90.9% |
| Expekt | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 90.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.75 | 88.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.98 | 3.94 | 4.30 | 100.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.77–1.98 · 11.9% | 3.30–3.94 · 19.4% | 3.70–4.30 · 16.2% | 88.9–95.2% |
How did the Lech Poznan – AGF odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 22 Jul to 3.94 at kick-off, a 9.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LECH POZNAN | DRAW | AGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 22 Jul (open) | 1.88 | 3.60 | 4.15 |
| Sun 26 Jul | 1.93 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Wed 29 Jul (kick-off) | 1.98 | 3.94 | 4.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 59.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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