Riga FC – Vardar Skopje odds
Riga FC went into the match as heavy favourites against Vardar Skopje.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Riga FC – Vardar Skopje: closing odds analysis
- Riga FC were favourites: the closing odds implied a 66% chance of a home win, 15% for Vardar Skopje and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Riga FC 1.50 at bwin, the draw 5.00 at VBET, Vardar Skopje 7.10 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 at the opening to 5.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Riga FC or Vardar Skopje?
Riga FC, by a distance: the closing odds put 51.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Riga FC – Vardar Skopje?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Riga FC, VBET on the draw and VBET on Vardar Skopje. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.7%) and VBET the least (91.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | RIGA FC | DRAW | VARDAR SKOPJE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.39 | 4.80 | 6.60 | 92.7% |
| bwin | 1.50 best price | 4.10 | 5.50 | 91.5% |
| VBET | 1.32 | 5.00 best price | 7.10 best price | 91.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.50 | 5.00 | 7.10 | 99.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.32–1.50 · 13.6% | 4.10–5.00 · 22.0% | 5.50–7.10 · 29.1% | 91.0–92.7% |
How did the Riga FC – Vardar Skopje odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 when odds opened on 26 Jul to 5.00 at kick-off, a 6.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | RIGA FC | DRAW | VARDAR SKOPJE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 Jul (open) | 1.49 | 4.70 | 6.80 |
| Mon 27 Jul | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| Tue 28 Jul (kick-off) | 1.50 | 5.00 | 7.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 55.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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