Hearts – Sturm Graz odds
Hearts went into the match as heavy favourites against Sturm Graz.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Hearts – Sturm Graz: closing odds analysis
- Hearts were favourites: the closing odds implied a 50% chance of a home win, 25% for Sturm Graz and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hearts 2.00 at bwin, the draw 3.90 at Stake, Sturm Graz 3.98 at VBET.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 3.35 at the opening to 3.98 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hearts or Sturm Graz?
Hearts, by a distance: the closing odds put 25.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hearts – Sturm Graz?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Hearts, Stake on the draw and VBET on Sturm Graz. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and Stake the least (94.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | HEARTS | DRAW | STURM GRAZ | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.85 | 3.88 | 3.98 best price | 95.3% |
| bwin | 2.00 best price | 3.40 | 3.80 | 94.6% |
| Stake | 1.85 | 3.90 best price | 3.80 | 94.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.98 | 99.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.85–2.00 · 8.1% | 3.40–3.90 · 14.7% | 3.80–3.98 · 4.7% | 94.3–95.3% |
How did the Hearts – Sturm Graz odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sturm Graz drifted from 3.35 when odds opened on 24 Jul to 3.98 at kick-off, a 18.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HEARTS | DRAW | STURM GRAZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 24 Jul (open) | 2.10 | 3.95 | 3.35 |
| Sun 26 Jul | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Tue 28 Jul (kick-off) | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.98 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 61.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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