Valur – Zrinjski Mostar odds
Zrinjski Mostar went into the match as narrow favourites against Valur.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Valur – Zrinjski Mostar: closing odds analysis
- Zrinjski Mostar were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of an away win, 30% for Valur and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Valur 3.10 at Stake, the draw 3.45 at VBET, Zrinjski Mostar 2.30 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valur drifted from 2.30 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Valur or Zrinjski Mostar?
Zrinjski Mostar, but only just: the closing odds put 11.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Valur – Zrinjski Mostar?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Valur, VBET on the draw and bwin on Zrinjski Mostar. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.8%) and bwin the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | VALUR | DRAW | ZRINJSKI MOSTAR | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.10 best price | 3.40 | 2.17 | 92.8% |
| VBET | 3.01 | 3.45 best price | 2.10 | 91.1% |
| bwin | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 best price | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 95.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.00–3.10 · 3.3% | 3.00–3.45 · 15.0% | 2.10–2.30 · 9.5% | 90.8–92.8% |
How did the Valur – Zrinjski Mostar odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valur drifted from 2.30 when odds opened on 20 Jul to 3.10 at kick-off, a 34.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VALUR | DRAW | ZRINJSKI MOSTAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Jul (open) | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 2.60 | 3.41 | 2.55 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 55.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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