St. Gallen – Benfica odds
Benfica went into the match as heavy favourites against St. Gallen.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
St. Gallen – Benfica: closing odds analysis
- Benfica were favourites: the closing odds implied a 66% chance of an away win, 14% for St. Gallen and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: St. Gallen 7.10 at VBET, the draw 5.50 at VBET, Benfica 1.52 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 at the opening to 5.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, St. Gallen or Benfica?
Benfica, by a distance: the closing odds put 52.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on St. Gallen – Benfica?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on St. Gallen, VBET on the draw and bwin on Benfica. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.0%) and Stake the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | ST. GALLEN | DRAW | BENFICA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 7.10 best price | 5.50 best price | 1.37 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.52 best price | 94.7% |
| Stake | 6.80 | 4.90 | 1.37 | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 7.10 | 5.50 | 1.52 | 102.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 6.25–7.10 · 13.6% | 4.20–5.50 · 31.0% | 1.37–1.52 · 10.9% | 92.5–95.0% |
How did the St. Gallen – Benfica odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 when odds opened on 20 Jul to 5.50 at kick-off, a 17.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ST. GALLEN | DRAW | BENFICA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Jul (open) | 6.80 | 4.70 | 1.55 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 8.20 | 5.20 | 1.46 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 7.10 | 5.50 | 1.52 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 53.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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