Qarabag – CSKA Sofia odds
Qarabag went into the match as heavy favourites against CSKA Sofia.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Qarabag – CSKA Sofia: closing odds analysis
- Qarabag were favourites: the closing odds implied a 60% chance of a home win, 15% for CSKA Sofia and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Qarabag 1.65 at bwin, the draw 4.20 at Stake, CSKA Sofia 7.60 at VBET.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 6.40 at the opening to 7.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Qarabag or CSKA Sofia?
Qarabag, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Qarabag – CSKA Sofia?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Qarabag, Stake on the draw and VBET on CSKA Sofia. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.5%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | QARABAG | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 1.65 best price | 3.60 | 5.75 | 94.5% |
| Stake | 1.50 | 4.20 best price | 6.00 | 93.3% |
| VBET | 1.47 | 3.47 | 7.60 best price | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.65 | 4.20 | 7.60 | 102.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.47–1.65 · 12.2% | 3.47–4.20 · 21.0% | 5.75–7.60 · 32.2% | 90.9–94.5% |
How did the Qarabag – CSKA Sofia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 6.40 when odds opened on 23 Jul to 7.60 at kick-off, a 18.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | QARABAG | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 23 Jul (open) | 1.65 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 1.65 | 4.20 | 7.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 49.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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