Panevėžys – Tobol Kostanay odds
Tobol Kostanay went into the match as clear favourites against Panevėžys.
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2nd Half
Panevėžys – Tobol Kostanay: closing odds analysis
- Tobol Kostanay were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of an away win, 24% for Panevėžys and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Panevėžys 3.95 at Stake, the draw 3.47 at VBET, Tobol Kostanay 2.05 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Panevėžys drifted from 3.30 at the opening to 3.95 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 47% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Panevėžys or Tobol Kostanay?
Tobol Kostanay, clearly: the closing odds put 23.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Panevėžys – Tobol Kostanay?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Panevėžys, VBET on the draw and bwin on Tobol Kostanay. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.7%) and bwin the least (90.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | PANEVĖŽYS | DRAW | TOBOL KOSTANAY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.95 best price | 3.40 | 1.88 | 92.7% |
| VBET | 3.67 | 3.47 best price | 1.85 | 90.8% |
| bwin | 3.90 | 2.75 | 2.05 best price | 90.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.95 | 3.47 | 2.05 | 97.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.67–3.95 · 7.6% | 2.75–3.47 · 26.2% | 1.85–2.05 · 10.8% | 90.3–92.7% |
How did the Panevėžys – Tobol Kostanay odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Panevėžys drifted from 3.30 when odds opened on 21 Jul to 3.95 at kick-off, a 19.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PANEVĖŽYS | DRAW | TOBOL KOSTANAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Jul (open) | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 3.95 | 3.47 | 2.05 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 46.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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