Paide Linnameeskond – Zira odds
Zira went into the match as heavy favourites against Paide Linnameeskond.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Paide Linnameeskond – Zira: closing odds analysis
- Zira were favourites: the closing odds implied a 60% chance of an away win, 15% for Paide Linnameeskond and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Paide Linnameeskond 6.60 at Stake, the draw 4.00 at Stake, Zira 1.62 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 93.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Paide Linnameeskond shortened from 9.00 at the opening to 6.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 44% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Paide Linnameeskond or Zira?
Zira, by a distance: the closing odds put 44.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Paide Linnameeskond – Zira?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Paide Linnameeskond, Stake on the draw and bwin on Zira. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (93.2%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | PAIDE LINNAMEESKOND | DRAW | ZIRA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 6.60 best price | 4.00 best price | 1.49 | 93.2% |
| bwin | 6.00 | 3.25 | 1.62 best price | 91.6% |
| VBET | 5.90 | 3.66 | 1.52 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 6.60 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 98.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 5.90–6.60 · 11.9% | 3.25–4.00 · 23.1% | 1.49–1.62 · 8.7% | 90.9–93.2% |
How did the Paide Linnameeskond – Zira odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Paide Linnameeskond shortened from 9.00 when odds opened on 23 Jul to 6.60 at kick-off, a 26.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PAIDE LINNAMEESKOND | DRAW | ZIRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 23 Jul (open) | 9.00 | 5.30 | 1.41 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 6.60 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 43.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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