Lugano – Dukagjini odds
Lugano went into the match as heavy favourites against Dukagjini.
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1st Half
2nd Half
Lugano – Dukagjini: closing odds analysis
- Lugano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 78% chance of a home win, 6% for Dukagjini and 16% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lugano 1.26 at bwin, the draw 6.60 at Stake, Dukagjini 21.00 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Dukagjini drifted from 16.00 at the opening to 21.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 41% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lugano or Dukagjini?
Lugano, by a distance: the closing odds put 71.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lugano – Dukagjini?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Lugano, Stake on the draw and VBET on Dukagjini. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.6%) and VBET the least (91.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | LUGANO | DRAW | DUKAGJINI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.16 | 6.60 best price | 15.00 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 1.26 best price | 5.00 | 11.00 | 92.2% |
| VBET | 1.12 | 6.30 | 21.00 best price | 91.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.26 | 6.60 | 21.00 | 100.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.12–1.26 · 12.5% | 5.00–6.60 · 32.0% | 11.00–21.00 · 90.9% | 91.0–92.6% |
How did the Lugano – Dukagjini odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Dukagjini drifted from 16.00 when odds opened on 21 Jul to 21.00 at kick-off, a 31.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LUGANO | DRAW | DUKAGJINI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Jul (open) | 1.27 | 6.50 | 16.00 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 1.25 | 6.50 | 16.00 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 1.26 | 6.60 | 21.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 40.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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