Hajduk Split – Pafos odds
Hajduk Split went into the match as clear favourites against Pafos.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Hajduk Split – Pafos: closing odds analysis
- Hajduk Split were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 26% for Pafos and 31% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Hajduk Split 2.30 at bwin, the draw 3.10 at Stake, Pafos 3.60 at bwin.
- bwin had the highest closing payout on the match result: 94.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw shortened from 3.23 at the opening to 3.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Hajduk Split or Pafos?
Hajduk Split, clearly: the closing odds put 16.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Hajduk Split – Pafos?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Hajduk Split, Stake on the draw and bwin on Pafos. Across all three outcomes bwin paid out the most (94.0%) and VBET the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | HAJDUK SPLIT | DRAW | PAFOS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 2.30 best price | 2.85 | 3.60 best price | 94.0% |
| Stake | 2.11 | 3.10 best price | 3.55 | 92.7% |
| VBET | 2.08 | 2.95 | 3.57 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 96.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.08–2.30 · 10.6% | 2.85–3.10 · 8.8% | 3.55–3.60 · 1.4% | 90.9–94.0% |
How did the Hajduk Split – Pafos odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw shortened from 3.23 when odds opened on 20 Jul to 3.10 at kick-off, a 4.0% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | HAJDUK SPLIT | DRAW | PAFOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 20 Jul (open) | 2.30 | 3.23 | 3.50 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 2.37 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 50.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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