AEK Larnaca – Beitar Jerusalem odds
AEK Larnaca went into the match as clear favourites against Beitar Jerusalem.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
AEK Larnaca – Beitar Jerusalem: closing odds analysis
- AEK Larnaca were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for Beitar Jerusalem and 30% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AEK Larnaca 2.20 at bwin, the draw 3.30 at Stake, Beitar Jerusalem 3.51 at VBET.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AEK Larnaca drifted from 2.10 at the opening to 2.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 51% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AEK Larnaca or Beitar Jerusalem?
AEK Larnaca, clearly: the closing odds put 17.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AEK Larnaca – Beitar Jerusalem?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on AEK Larnaca, Stake on the draw and VBET on Beitar Jerusalem. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.8%) and VBET the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | AEK LARNACA | DRAW | BEITAR JERUSALEM | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 2.08 | 3.30 best price | 3.40 | 92.8% |
| bwin | 2.20 best price | 2.80 | 3.50 | 91.1% |
| VBET | 1.98 | 3.21 | 3.51 best price | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 95.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.98–2.20 · 11.1% | 2.80–3.30 · 17.9% | 3.40–3.51 · 3.2% | 90.8–92.8% |
How did the AEK Larnaca – Beitar Jerusalem odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AEK Larnaca drifted from 2.10 when odds opened on 21 Jul to 2.20 at kick-off, a 4.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AEK LARNACA | DRAW | BEITAR JERUSALEM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Jul (open) | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.82 |
| Thu 23 Jul (kick-off) | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.51 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 51.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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