Vardar Skopje – Riga FC odds
Riga FC went into the match as clear favourites against Vardar Skopje.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
Vardar Skopje – Riga FC: closing odds analysis
- Riga FC were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of an away win, 30% for Vardar Skopje and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Vardar Skopje 3.10 at bwin, the draw 3.55 at Stake, Riga FC 2.20 at bwin.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 92.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Riga FC shortened from 2.35 at the opening to 2.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Vardar Skopje or Riga FC?
Riga FC, clearly: the closing odds put 13.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Vardar Skopje – Riga FC?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Vardar Skopje, Stake on the draw and bwin on Riga FC. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (92.9%) and bwin the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | VARDAR SKOPJE | DRAW | RIGA FC | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.05 | 3.55 best price | 2.14 | 92.9% |
| VBET | 3.06 | 3.45 | 2.08 | 91.1% |
| bwin | 3.10 best price | 3.10 | 2.20 best price | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 94.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.05–3.10 · 1.6% | 3.10–3.55 · 14.5% | 2.08–2.20 · 5.8% | 90.9–92.9% |
How did the Vardar Skopje – Riga FC odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Riga FC shortened from 2.35 when odds opened on 21 Jul to 2.20 at kick-off, a 6.4% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | VARDAR SKOPJE | DRAW | RIGA FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Jul (open) | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Wed 22 Jul | 3.21 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Wed 22 Jul (kick-off) | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 60.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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